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Iran War Day 5 Roundup: Global Powers Split as Expanding Conflict Sends Shockwaves to India’s Strategic Neighbourhood

Edited by IndianRepublic.in - Location: New Delhi, Delhi, India

✍️ Written by Saket Suman

At a time when the war between the United States, Israel and Iran has been going on for well over its fifth day, the conflict’s impact has widened dramatically beyond the battlefield, and triggered internet blackouts inside Iran, collapsed shipping through one of the world’s most critical oil corridors, paralysed air traffic across the Gulf and, most significantly, prompted some sharply divided responses from global leaders.

Iran War Day 5 Roundup: Global Powers Split as Expanding Conflict Sends Shockwaves to India’s Strategic Neighbourhood
Representational Image; U.S. Marines with 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit fast rope off of an MH-60S Knighthawk aboard USS Tripoli; Via: 7thFleet 
For India, the widening conflict is no longer a distant geopolitical confrontation but a crisis unfolding uncomfortably close to home. The sinking of an Iranian warship IRIS Dena near Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean just today, after it had participated in a naval exercise in Visakhapatnam, has revealed how the war has already reached waters central to India’s strategic neighbourhood. New Delhi also faces the immediate risk to nearly one crore Indians living and working across the Gulf, many of them concentrated in countries now under missile and drone threats. The same region supplies a significant portion of India’s crude oil and hosts thousands of Indian seafarers navigating the shipping lanes now disrupted by the conflict.

Internet monitoring organisation NetBlocks said Iran has now been largely offline for more than 100 hours, which marks the second nationwide shutdown this year. Network data indicates connectivity across the country has fallen to roughly one percent of normal levels. 

NetBlocks had also previously estimated that a similar blackout during protests in January cost the Iranian economy more than $37 million in lost digital activity. The shutdown, corresponding to power issues after gas field closures for staff safety as per NetBlocks, has severely restricted communications inside Iran just as airstrikes, missile attacks and leadership succession debates dominate the country.

At the same time, the war has disrupted global energy flows. Analysis of vessel tracking data suggests tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes, has dropped by about 90 percent compared with last week. 

Matt Wright, principal freight analyst at the maritime analytics firm Kpler, said the collapse in traffic reflects growing fears among shipping companies and insurers. While some tankers continue to move through the strait, he said several voyages are now taking place with AIS tracking systems switched off, which indicates that vessels may be attempting to conceal their positions as tensions have escalated.

The aviation sector is facing similar disruptions too. Dubai, normally one of the busiest international aviation hubs in the world, is operating at a fraction of its normal capacity due to regional airspace closures. 

Flight-tracking service Flightradar24 said that although activity at Dubai International Airport increased slightly on Tuesday, it was still well below ten percent of normal daily traffic levels. 

Emirates airline confirmed that all scheduled flights to and from Dubai remain suspended until March 7, and warned passengers not to travel to airports unless they hold confirmed bookings or have been contacted directly. Limited flights are being operated mainly to accommodate stranded passengers and priority travel.

Some governments and airlines have begun arranging special evacuation services. Kenya Airways said it would operate limited repatriation flights between Nairobi and Dubai after receiving clearance from airport authorities to facilitate travel for citizens and residents seeking to leave the region.

Beyond the logistical disruptions, the war is also exposing deep divisions among world leaders over how to respond. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has strongly criticised the conflict and rejected pressure from Washington after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to halt trade with Spain for refusing to allow American forces to use bases on Spanish territory.

Sanchez has already warned that the escalating confrontation amounted to “playing Russian roulette with the destiny of millions,” and argued that his government would not support military actions that violate its values or international law. He urged all sides to halt the fighting before the crisis spirals further.

European tensions have also surfaced within NATO. Trump has publicly criticised both Spain and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for refusing to permit certain offensive operations from their bases. Starmer told British lawmakers that the United Kingdom would not enter the war without a clear legal basis and strategic plan, though British forces were assisting U.S. operations defensively by intercepting drones and sharing intelligence.

France has taken a different approach, announcing defensive deployments to protect European interests in the region. President Emmanuel Macron said Paris would send the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and accompanying warships to the Mediterranean while reinforcing air-defence systems near Cyprus after drone strikes struck a British base there. Macron warned that the conflict could last longer than anticipated and may trigger serious global economic consequences.

Macron has also stated that strikes on Iran that killed the country's supreme leader were conducted "outside of international law" and that Paris "cannot approve of them."

International institutions and regional blocs are also urging restraint. The foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have issued a joint statement expressing “serious concern” over the widening war and calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities, respect for international law and the protection of civilians.

Meanwhile inside Iran, political uncertainty is growing following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the opening phase of the war. Iranian officials maintain that the powerful Assembly of Experts is moving toward selecting a successor, with Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son, widely seen as a leading candidate backed by elements of the Revolutionary Guard. His potential elevation would likely signal continuity rather than compromise in Tehran’s approach to the conflict.

Iranian leaders have framed the war as a forced response to what they describe as U.S.–Israeli aggression. President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a message to neighbouring countries that Tehran had sought to avoid conflict through diplomacy but was compelled to defend itself after the attacks. Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi also accused Washington of “bombing the negotiation table,” arguing that diplomatic efforts were deliberately undermined.

The humanitarian cost continues to rise. More than 800 people are estimated to have been killed across the region since the war began, which includes casualties from airstrikes inside Iran and retaliatory missile attacks across the Middle East. The United Nations human rights office has also called for an investigation into how a girls’ school in southern Iran was struck during the first day of bombing, and killed young students.

With global supply chains strained, oil shipments collapsing rapidly through the Strait of Hormuz, and multiple powers having deployed military assets from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean, the ongoing Iran war has already shaped into a geopolitical crisis extending far beyond the Middle East battlefield.

For India, the geopolitical equation surrounding the war has become uniquely complex. Iran has historically been an important energy partner and a gateway to Central Asia while Israel and the United States have emerged as two of New Delhi’s closest strategic and defence partners. At the same time, India’s economic lifelines run through the Gulf monarchies that host millions of Indian workers and sit directly in the line of regional escalation. With the Strait of Hormuz choking, air routes disrupted and the conflict already spilling into the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka, the war is now unfolding at the edge of India’s strategic and economic perimeter — closer, and more consequential, than many may yet realise.

(Saket Suman is Editor at IndianRepublic.in, and the author of The Psychology of a Patriot.) 

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