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✍️ Written by Saket Suman Wars often appear at first as regional confrontations defined by the geography of the battlefield but the Iran war that is now unfolding across West Asia is revealing something far more consequential that has served a systemic shock to the global order. What began as a military escalation between Iran, the United States and Israel has rapidly expanded into a crisis that touches the most critical systems underpinning modern globalization, namely energy supply, maritime trade, aviation networks, financial markets and the millions of workers who sustain them. The war is not only being fought in the skies over the Middle East or the waters of the Persian Gulf but it is also unfolding across the infrastructure that powers the global economy itself. Representational Image Via: @RedPrecariat on X At the center of this crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor through which roughly one-fifth of the world...

✍️ Written by Saket Suman Within a span of just over two weeks, the United States has issued three separate sanctions waivers, first for Indian-bound Russian crude, then for Russian oil globally, and now for Iranian crude itself. This has revealed a pattern that suggests Washington’s sanctions regime is no longer a static enforcement mechanism but a dynamic tool being repositioned in real time to balance war objectives with global energy stability. Representational Image Via:  U.S. Central Command As IndianRepublic.in had earlier reported on March 6 , the U.S. Treasury issued General License 133 permitting Indian refiners to receive Russian crude already at sea, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating the aim was to “ensure oil continues flowing into global markets,” even while maintaining pressure on Russia. That India-specific measure was expanded on March 13 through General License 134 , which allowed the delivery of Russian crude glo...

✍️ Written by Saket Suman India’s LNG import architecture has been hit by a major disruption that could last three to five years as 47% of its LNG imports sourced from Qatar are now exposed to prolonged supply shocks after missile strikes have cut Qatar’s export capacity by 17% , caused an estimated $20 billion in annual losses , and forced the declaration of force majeure on long-term contracts . File Photo of the Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz, which suffered a massive explosion in the Mediterranean earlier this month; Via: OpenSourceIntel An IndianRepublic.in analysis of official disclosures issued within hours by New Delhi and Doha on Thursday points to a widening policy gap, with the Government of India yet to articulate a detailed procurement roadmap, volume replacement strategy or cost framework , stating only that it will pursue diversification without specifying how much supply will be sourced, from where, and at what e...

✍️ Written by Saket Suman Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday spoke with Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan ,  President of the UAE, and  condemned attacks on the UAE while also stressing the urgent need to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. This comes as India has simultaneously ramped up nationwide fuel supply safeguards, intensified anti-hoarding enforcement, expanded evacuation operations and stepped up its diplomatic outreach through EAM S Jaishankar in response to the escalating Iran war and widening risks to global energy flows and Indian nationals across the Gulf. File Photo of PM NaMo welcoming President of the UAE at the airport.  Modi said he conveyed advance Eid greetings to the UAE leader and reiterated “India’s strong condemnation of all attacks on the UAE that have resulted in loss of innocent lives and damage to civilian infrastructure,” according to a statement . He added that both sides “...

✍️ Written by Saket Suman More than two weeks into the Iran war and the clearest record of what this conflict has become is found in Donald Trump’s own words . Read chronologically, his public statements and social media posts do not reveal a coherent war aim so much as they point to a pattern of escalation without restraint, triumphalism without closure, and threats so sweeping that they dissolve the distinction between military coercion and open-ended devastation. What emerges is a head of state normalising the language of civilisational punishment while the global economy convulses, shipping slows in Hormuz, migrants and seafarers die in the Gulf, and ordinary households from South Asia to Europe brace for the price of a conflict they did not choose. File Photo of POTUS Trump; Via: White House The argument for this war was never stable. Even as the administration invoked Iran’s nuclear programme, Trump’s own rhetoric kept widening the battlefi...

✍️ Written by Saket Suman India’s tryst with the West Asia crisis on Thursday completely ceased to be a question of distant war and became, more clearly than before, a test of state capacity, diplomatic balance and political credibility at home. The day’s developments showed a government trying to hold together three fronts at once. Keeping Indian citizens and seafarers alive in an active war zone, preventing a shipping and fuel shock from cascading into panic inside India, and preserving enough diplomatic space to speak to all sides while the conflict itself grows more dangerous and less predictable. Representational Image/File Photo Via Mayank Austen Soofi, @thedelhiwalla on X That larger picture sharpened as Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and made India’s position unusually explicit. As IndianRepublic.in reported , Modi said the safety and security of Indian nationals, along with “the need for unhi...

✍️ Written by Saket Suman The Iran war entered a more economically consequential phase on Wednesday as Tehran’s pressure campaign moved decisively from military bases and energy assets to commercial shipping and civilian transport , and forced governments and markets to confront the reality that the war is no longer just destabilizing the Middle East but also beginning to hit the arteries of global trade directly. In the span of a day, a Thai cargo ship bound for India was struck and set ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz, other merchant vessels were hit or diverted, drones struck near Dubai International Airport, and the International Energy Agency responded by authorizing the largest emergency oil release in its history . This is now a full-spectrum of contest over logistics, mobility and economic pain. Image Via: kadmitriev The clearest sign of that shift came at sea. Thai officials said a search was under way for three missing crew members af...