Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Closure Raises Global Oil Shock Fears as US-Israel Conflict Expands Into Maritime Front
Iran has now signalled a potential escalation of the widening Middle East conflict by warning that vessels should not transit the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, following coordinated United States and Israeli military strikes on Iranian territory, raising fears of disruption to global oil flows, maritime security and international trade routes.
 |
| File Photo of US Nav in Strait of Hormuz, firing it's 5-inch gun |
According to an official connected to the European Union’s naval mission Operation Aspides, commercial ships moving through the strait began receiving VHF radio transmissions stating that “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz,” messages attributed to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, though Iranian authorities have not formally confirmed issuing an order closing the passage.
The reported warnings coincided with advisories from the United States urging commercial vessels to exercise caution in Gulf waters as military exchanges expanded beyond Iran and Israel to include attacks targeting U.S. facilities and allied locations across the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies and a significant share of liquefied natural gas shipments, making it the most strategically sensitive energy transit route in the world. Major exporters including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates rely heavily on the passage, with limited alternative export routes available.
Energy analysts estimate that more than 20 million barrels of crude and refined fuels move through the channel daily, much of it bound for Asian markets such as India, China, Japan and South Korea, meaning even partial disruption could trigger immediate global economic consequences.
The warning followed U.S.–Israeli strikes conducted after months of mounting pressure over Iran’s nuclear programme and regional activities. President Donald Trump said the operations aimed to “defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats,” while Israeli officials described the campaign as necessary to neutralise security risks.
Iran responded with missile and drone launches targeting Israel and U.S. military installations across Gulf states, reinforcing concerns that maritime trade routes could become the next arena of confrontation.
Tehran has repeatedly threatened to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during previous crises but has never fully implemented a blockade, largely because such a move would also affect its own oil exports and risk direct confrontation with Western naval forces stationed in the region.
Nonetheless, analysts note that Iran possesses multiple asymmetric options short of closure, including harassment by fast patrol boats, drone or missile attacks on tankers, naval mining operations or electronic interference affecting ship navigation systems — measures capable of making the route unsafe without formally sealing it.
Market observers warned that the latest developments could prove more disruptive than earlier geopolitical supply shocks because the Strait represents a transit chokepoint rather than a production hub.
Even limited interference could push oil prices sharply higher, drive investors toward safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar, and increase volatility across global equity markets. Financial analysts suggested energy prices could surge significantly if shipping insurers reclassify the area as a high-risk war zone or if tanker traffic slows under naval escort requirements.
The escalation also carries broader strategic implications. Asian economies, heavily dependent on Gulf energy flows, face heightened exposure to supply disruptions, while Europe remains vulnerable to liquefied natural gas interruptions.
India, which imports a large share of its crude from Middle Eastern producers, could face rising fuel costs and inflationary pressures if shipments through the strait are constrained. At the same time, prolonged instability could reshape shipping routes, insurance markets and naval deployments across the Indo-Pacific and Mediterranean theatres.
Under international maritime law, ships retain transit passage rights through international straits used for navigation, but overlapping territorial claims by Iran and Oman have long created legal ambiguity, allowing geopolitical tensions to influence enforcement realities during crises.
Western naval forces have historically increased patrols during periods of escalation to guarantee freedom of navigation, suggesting that any attempt to enforce restrictions could trigger direct maritime confrontation.
ALSO READ: