UN Warns Hormuz Disruption Is Becoming a Global Trade Shock as Lebanon Crisis Deepens and Supply Chains Fray
The war triggered by the U.S.–Israeli assault on Iran is no longer only a military confrontation centered on missiles, oil sites and retaliatory strikes. It is now beginning to register as a broader systemic shock to global trade and development, with the United Nations warning that the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is threatening energy flows, fertilizer supplies, food prices, humanitarian logistics and already fragile economies across several regions.
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| Representational Map: Visegrad24 |
According to the UN analysis, the strait normally carries 38% of global seaborne crude oil trade, 29% of LPG, 19% of LNG, 19% of refined oil products, 13% of chemicals including fertilizers, 2.8% of container trade and 2.4% of dry bulk cargo. In other words, what is being squeezed is not just oil, but a complex network of industrial and agricultural inputs that connect the Gulf to global markets.
UNCTAD said daily ship transits through the strait, which averaged 129 a day during most of February, fell to single digits in early March as the conflict escalated. The immediate reaction in commodity markets has already been sharp. Its data showed oil prices rising 27% and gas prices 74% between 27 February and 9 March 2026, a move that has pushed energy costs higher at exactly the moment many developing economies are least able to absorb another external shock.
That economic warning is increasingly being echoed across the wider UN system, which is now describing the war less as a contained regional conflict and more as an expanding civilian and development emergency.
Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, warned that repeated strikes on residential areas, hospitals, schools, water facilities and energy systems are increasing the danger to civilians across the region. “Under the laws of war, civilians and civilian infrastructure must be protected at all costs,” he said, stressing that all parties must respect international humanitarian law and be held accountable for violations.
The conflict’s impact is especially visible in Lebanon, where the war is increasingly emerging as both a second front and a major humanitarian disaster in its own right. The UN says nearly 700,000 people have now been displaced there, with more than 100,000 uprooted in just 24 hours.
This pace that UN agencies say is even faster than during the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah war. UN refugee officials described families sleeping in cars, arriving in Beirut and northern Lebanon with little more than what they could carry, while collective shelters are nearing capacity.
The strain on civilian systems is growing quickly. The UN reproductive health agency UNFPA said escalating strikes across southern Beirut, southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley have killed and injured hundreds while forcing families into schools and temporary shelters.
It warned that poor sanitation, overcrowding and the closure of health facilities are heightening risks for women and girls, including gender-based violence. Mobile health teams are now being deployed to provide reproductive care, psychosocial support and emergency supplies.
At the same time, the UN peacekeeping mission UNIFIL said exchanges of fire continue across the Blue Line, with rockets fired toward Israel, Israeli airstrikes and artillery shelling in southern Lebanon, and even movement by Israeli forces north of the demarcation line. A mortar shell struck near a UNIFIL position on Monday, scattering debris though causing no injuries.
In separate operations, UN peacekeepers escorted civilians out of Alma Al Chaab and other villages after evacuation orders, helping children, elderly residents and people with disabilities move to safety. These developments suggest the Lebanon front is not only widening militarily but also becoming a major test of the region’s humanitarian capacity.
The war’s consequences are also spreading eastward into Afghanistan, where UNICEF warned that supply chain disruption linked to the Middle East conflict is beginning to threaten the delivery of nutrition assistance for children.
Supplies that would normally transit through Pakistan are now delayed due to border closures and regional instability, forcing humanitarian agencies to search for far longer routes via Europe and Central Asia.
UNICEF said children returning from Iran are arriving exhausted and vulnerable at crossings such as Islam Qala, facing heightened risks of family separation, violence and malnutrition.
The environmental dimension of the war is also becoming harder to ignore. UN officials said strikes on fuel facilities in Iran and desalination sites in both Iran and Bahrain have raised fears of toxic pollution, acid rain and severe disruption to water access.
A spokesperson for the World Health Organization warned that “black rain” and acidic fallout linked to oil strikes pose a serious respiratory danger to civilians. Iranian authorities, the WHO said, have already advised people to stay indoors in affected areas.
The crisis is also threatening sectors that usually receive less attention in wartime reporting but are central to long-term recovery and state functioning. UNESCO has warned that several World Heritage sites — including Golestan Palace in Iran, the White City of Tel Aviv and Tyre in Lebanon — have already been impacted, while schools, universities, journalists and scientific institutions across the region are increasingly exposed to the deteriorating security environment.
This matters because wars of this scale do not simply destroy military assets; they degrade the cultural, educational and informational infrastructure on which social recovery depends.
UNCTAD’s economic assessment goes further by showing why the shock could be particularly severe for poorer economies. It warned that higher oil, gas and transport costs often translate into higher food and fertilizer prices, a pattern seen previously during the COVID-19 crisis and the opening phase of the war in Ukraine.
The agency said some of the world’s most vulnerable countries are especially exposed to fertilizer disruption from the Gulf. In 2024, for example, Sudan sourced 54% of its seaborne fertilizer imports from the Persian Gulf region, Sri Lanka 36%, Tanzania 31%, Somalia 30%, Pakistan 27% and Kenya 26%.
This means that a war which begins with missiles and tankers in the Gulf can quickly become a food-cost and farm-input crisis in parts of Africa and South Asia.
There is also a financial dimension. UNCTAD warned that many developing countries already face high debt-servicing burdens, limited fiscal space and constrained access to finance, leaving them acutely vulnerable to another imported price shock.
Its data showed government bond yields climbing across several Gulf and regional economies since the military escalation began, with particularly notable increases in Iraq, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Kuwait.
The implication is clear that the longer the disruption lasts, the greater the risk that the war begins to affect not only commodity prices but sovereign borrowing costs and fiscal stability.
In practical terms, the message from the UN system is remarkably consistent. De-escalation is no longer just a diplomatic preference; it is becoming an economic and humanitarian necessity. UNCTAD says safeguarding maritime transport, ports, seafarers and civilian infrastructure is essential to reduce risks to trade and development.
Human rights officials are demanding protection for civilians and hospitals. Refugee agencies are warning of displacement on a massive scale. Health agencies are confronting pollution, closures and shortages. Cultural bodies are sounding alarms over heritage, schools and media institutions.