NATO on Alert After Russian Airspace Violation Sparks Estonian Article 4 Trigger
NATO’s eastern flank is under acute military and diplomatic stress following a high-risk violation of Estonian airspace by Russian fighter jets and an overnight missile and drone blitz on Ukraine that brought the war to the doorstep of allied territory.
Estonia has officially invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty, a rarely used mechanism that compels formal consultation among member states, after three Russian MiG-31 aircraft entered its airspace without clearance.
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| Estonia has officially invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty. |
The incursion lasted 12 minutes. NATO responded with force posture adjustments, scrambling Italian F-35s stationed in Estonia alongside Swedish and Finnish aircraft operating under the alliance’s Eastern Sentry mission.
Moscow has denied any violation, insisting its aircraft remained in international airspace. NATO says radar and flight data confirm otherwise.
The violation comes as tensions spiral further. On Saturday morning, Poland confirmed that its military aircraft—alongside NATO partners--had been scrambled after Russia launched a barrage of 579 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles on Ukraine, some reportedly striking within kilometres of Poland’s border.
The Polish military announced its air defence systems had reached “maximum readiness.”
In parallel, Lithuania’s defence minister issued a public warning that NATO must revise its eastern deterrence doctrine, stating the alliance “has the right to shoot down” hostile aircraft violating member-state airspace.
“Turkey showed that a decade ago,” she posted, referring to Ankara’s downing of a Russian jet in 2015 under similar circumstances.
The atmosphere in the region is rapidly shifting from deterrence to preemption. Following Estonia’s trigger of Article 4, NATO’s principal political body is expected to meet early next week.
Diplomats say discussions will focus on rules of engagement, joint command flexibility, and airspace sovereignty protocols.
The US, however, appears to be recalibrating. Multiple diplomatic sources confirmed that the Pentagon has informed European officials of plans to partially halt military assistance to NATO’s front-line states, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.
The shift, described internally as a “strategic reprioritization,” emphasises homeland defence over forward deployment, aligning with President Trump’s broader posture.
While Washington has not formally withdrawn any commitments, European officials have privately acknowledged that Trump is moving the United States into what one diplomat called “the passenger seat” of NATO’s eastern security.
This pivot, coming amid multiple Russian incursions in Estonian, Polish, and Romanian airspace, has unsettled frontline governments.
In the Czech Republic, an American B-52 strategic bomber took part in an aerial formation on Saturday to mark Czech Air Force Day.
While the event was ceremonial, its eastern trajectory was widely seen as a calibrated signal of presence amid mounting regional instability.
The overnight Russian strikes on Ukraine included dummy drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic attacks, hitting critical infrastructure across several oblasts. Ukraine’s air force said three people were killed and at least 32 injured.
President Volodymyr Zelensky called the assault “a deliberate strategy to terrorise civilians and dismantle our energy grid.”
Zelensky is scheduled to meet President Trump at the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week. Officials say discussions will centre on a proposed long-term security framework for Ukraine and the stalled proposal for a three-way summit involving Trump, Zelensky, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. No breakthrough has been reported yet.
The convergence of military incidents, NATO treaty invocation, airspace violations, and shifting US posture marks a decisive moment in the second phase of the Ukraine war.
For the Baltic states, the question is no longer if escalation will reach them—but how ready the alliance is to respond.
This is a developing story.