Swinney Sets Stage for Second Scottish Independence Vote, Cites Need for SNP Majority in 2026 Holyrood Elections

John Swinney, First Minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), has announced that his party will treat the next Scottish parliamentary elections in 2026 as a mandate to pursue a second vote on Scottish independence. 

In a column published over the weekend, Swinney stated that winning a majority of seats in the Holyrood 2026 elections--the legislature based in Edinburgh--would give the Scottish government the political authority to demand a second Scotland independence vote.

Image Source: John Swinney on X

Swinney argued that the only proven route to a legal referendum is through securing what he called a John Swinney SNP majority in Scotland’s devolved parliament. 

He cited the 2011 Scottish elections, when the Scottish National Party won a majority, leading to the UK government in London--commonly referred to as Westminster--granting permission for the first independence referendum, held in 2014.

That 2014 vote ended in a decision to remain in the United Kingdom, with 55% voting against independence. 

However, the political landscape has since changed, and calls for a second Scottish independence referendum in 2026 have grown, especially following the UK’s exit from the European Union--a move that the majority of Scottish voters opposed.

Despite the political momentum, holding another binding referendum would still require Westminster approval. Under the UK’s constitutional structure, only the central government can authorise a legal vote on independence. 

The current UK administration has repeatedly rejected such requests. Swinney’s approach seeks to replicate the political conditions that led to the 2014 vote.

The campaign group Scotland in Union, which opposes independence, criticised the announcement, stating that it reflects a continued focus on constitutional issues instead of public services and economic recovery. 

The Scotland in Union response accused Swinney and his party of pushing a divisive agenda.

The discussion around the Holyrood 2026 elections and their implications for a second independence vote is now central to UK–Scotland constitutional politics. 

The result of those elections may determine whether the UK faces renewed pressure to revisit the structure of the union.

Swinney is also in the spotlight internationally this week as he prepares to meet current United States President Donald Trump in Aberdeen, Scotland. 

The Trump Swinney Aberdeen meeting is expected to focus in part on trade, with Swinney intending to lobby for the removal of US tariffs on Scotch whisky. 

The Scotch whisky US tariffs Trump discussion has become a key concern for the Scottish economy, as the industry is reportedly losing £4 million per week due to the ongoing trade restrictions.

Swinney has stated that Scotch whisky, a protected regional product that can only be made in Scotland, deserves exemption from tariffs because of its economic and cultural significance. 

He plans to raise the issue directly with President Trump during their bilateral meeting.

Swinney’s twin-track strategy--securing a political mandate at home for a second Scotland independence vote while strengthening economic ties abroad--places both the Scottish independence referendum 2026 and the future of UK–Scotland relations back at the centre of national and international attention.