FLASHPOINT: Russia–Azerbaijan Tensions Deepen After Police Raids, Jet Crash, and Shifting Alliances

Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan have escalated sharply in recent months. These have been punctuated by diplomatic clashes, mutual arrests, and public fallout over the deaths of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russia and a fatal plane crash that Baku has blamed on Moscow.

Once seen as pragmatic partners in the post-Soviet landscape, Russia and Azerbaijan are now locked in a public dispute that is reshaping alliances across the South Caucasus and beyond.

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The most recent flashpoint came on June 27, when Russian police raided the homes of ethnic Azerbaijani residents in Yekaterinburg in connection with cold-case murders. Two brothers, Huseyn and Ziyaddin Safarov, died during the operation. 

Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General’s Office alleged that the men were beaten and subjected to physical abuse. Their deaths sparked a diplomatic backlash in Baku, which accused Russian authorities of extrajudicial violence and halted several planned cultural and official bilateral engagements.

In a direct response, Azerbaijani police raided the offices of the Kremlin-funded Sputnik Azerbaijan in Baku and detained seven of its employees. Authorities also arrested eight Russian nationals, including IT professionals, on charges ranging from drug trafficking to cybercrime. 

Images of the detainees with visible facial injuries circulated widely on Russian media and drew condemnation from Moscow, where commentators described the arrests as politically motivated.

The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Azerbaijan’s ambassador to protest what it called “unfriendly actions” and accused Baku of deliberately damaging bilateral ties. Azerbaijan responded by summoning the Russian ambassador in Baku and demanding a full investigation and accountability for the Yekaterinburg deaths.

This diplomatic breakdown comes months after a separate incident in December 2024 further strained ties. An Azerbaijan Airlines jet en route to Grozny crashed after reportedly being hit by Russian air defense fire. 

Thirty-eight people were killed. While President Vladimir Putin expressed regret, he stopped short of admitting fault. President Ilham Aliyev accused Moscow of trying to suppress the facts and declined to attend Russia’s Victory Day celebrations in May.

Adding to the shift, Azerbaijan has recently strengthened relations with Ukraine and Turkey. A visit from Ukraine’s foreign minister in Baku in May was widely interpreted as a message to Moscow. President Aliyev also discussed the worsening situation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who publicly backed Azerbaijan against what he described as Russian intimidation.

The backdrop to this breakdown is a changing power balance in the region. In 2023, Azerbaijan regained full control of the disputed Karabakh region after a swift military operation. Russian peacekeepers, preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, did not intervene. Armenia, feeling abandoned by its longtime ally, has since reoriented its foreign policy toward the West.

As Russia’s influence recedes in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan appears more willing to assert itself diplomatically and militarily. Aliyev’s government has called for justice over the deaths in Russia and rejected criticism of its domestic security actions. Moscow, meanwhile, is signalling that it sees Baku’s recent actions as a challenge to its regional standing.