EXPLAINED: How BRICS Is Reshaping the Global Order—And Why Trump’s Tariff Threat Is a Warning to India

BRICS now accounts for 40% of the global economy and nearly half of the world’s population. At purchasing power parity, its combined GDP will hit $77 trillion by 2025, far ahead of the G7’s $57 trillion. 

Member nations are ditching the dollar, building new financial systems, and pushing for independent trade mechanisms. In Russia’s case, 90% of trade with BRICS nations is now settled in national currencies.

But in Washington, Donald Trump is preparing to strike back—with tariffs.

Image Source:pmnamoonx

At a Cabinet meeting broadcast live and amplified on Truth Social, Trump issued a blunt threat: a 10% import tariff on all BRICS countries. India included. “BRICS was set up to hurt us,” he declared. “The dollar is king. We are going to keep it that way.”

For India, the message couldn’t be more dangerous. Even as it edges closer to sealing a long-awaited trade deal with the U.S., it now faces being penalized for being part of a bloc it helped build. “India will certainly have to pay 10% if they are in BRICS,” Trump said. There was no mention of the country’s strategic balance, no recognition of its non-aligned posture. Just an ultimatum.

Behind the scenes, Indian negotiators have worked for months to wrap up a trade agreement with Washington—what sources describe as “nearly complete but waiting for clarity.” That clarity now seems farther away. Instead, India is being asked to choose sides: between a rising Global South and the transactional calculus of American protectionism.

Trump’s tariff barrage is broader than just BRICS. Letters published online since July 7 threaten new import duties: 25% on Japan and South Korea, 30% on South Africa and Bosnia, 35% on Bangladesh and Serbia, up to 40% on Laos and Myanmar. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect August 1, framed as “final, firm, and fair.” Negotiations, Trump insists, will happen after the pain begins.

Putin proposed a new settlement and depository system independent of the dollar. He had pushed for a BRICS investment platform, an arbitration center, and permanent tax coordination. These are steps toward financial sovereignty. Steps the West sees as provocation.

India, however, has joined BRICS not as a rejection of the West but as a strategic hedge. It seeks multipolarity, not monetary rebellion. It trades with the U.S., partners on defence and tech, and deepens ties with Europe—but also sees BRICS as a way to amplify its global leverage. That nuance is lost in Trump’s zero-sum worldview.

The question is can India stay non-aligned in a world that punishes independence? Can it sustain trade with the U.S. without surrendering policy space to American domestic politics?

The stakes are high. India’s largest export market is now tying tariffs to loyalty. No exception for size, for democracy, or for balance.